Blue Chip Economic Indicators®

Summary

Blue Chip Economic Indicators® is the market-leading collection of macroeconomic consensus forecasts for the United States. Each month since 1976, Blue Chip Economic Indicators® has polled renowned business economists for future changes in real growth, inflation, interest rates. BCEI compiles estimates into a consensus average forecast published each month based on responses from analysts at foremost investment and other financial services firms, consulting and research organizations, and industry trade groups. Data include US projections by the individual panelists for 15 indicators, as well as a consensus estimates for 16 countries.

Features and Benefits

Together with Thomson Reuters’ deep, historical economic and financial content, Blue Chip Economic Indicators® provides a robust toolset for analyzing the U.S. economy. Taken from a powerful cross section of business and industry analysts, BCEI forecast data help to spot trends and predict key economic indicators influencing financial markets.

Blue Chip has a 30 year track record of providing corporate and government decision-makers with our survey results has made Blue Chip Economic Indicators® synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the American economy.

Blue Chip Economic Indicators® is a fee liable dataset.

Additional Content Info

THE DATA

The Blue Chip U.S. predictions are compiled into an average panelist consensus per indicator, along with averages of the 10 highest and 10 lowest forecasts, and a median forecast to eliminate the effects of extremes on the consensus. The number of forecasts raised, lowered, or left unchanged from a month ago are also provided, as well as a diffusion index that indicates shifts in sentiment. Twice a year panelists are asked for their expectations over the next 5 years

A separate survey of international firms is conducted producing forecasts for the Euro Zone and 15 countries across the globe. The compiled results include an average consensus for 5 key indicators, and averages of the 3 highest and 3 lowest forecasts.

THE SERIES

The Blue Chip content provides U.S. forecasts for the next and current year in the following ways:

  • Individual panelists monthly forecasts of annual changes in 15 key economic indicators and consensuses thereof, in addition to median, averages of 10 and bottom 10, and diffusion indexes
  • Monthly consensus of the panelist expectations of quarterly changes or averages of 12 economic variables, top and bottom 10 averages
  • Actual quarterly forecasts for real GDP, GDP chain price index, consumer price index, and industrial production index

Twice a year, in March and October, participants report over a longer time horizon, providing:

  • Long-range projections of 15 indicators for the United States over the next 5 years and average thereof, with consensuses, top and bottom 10 averages

International expectations covering 16 countries include the following:

  • Monthly consensus forecasts of economic growth, inflation, current account, exchange rate and short-term interest rate for America’s largest trading partners. Includes averages of top and bottom 3 forecasts.

U.S. INDICATOR COVERAGE

Year over Year Percent Changes in

  • Real and Nominal GDP
  • GDP Price Index
  • CPI/Inflation
  • Industrial Production
  • Disposable Personal Income
  • Personal Consumption Expenditure
  • Non-Residential Fixed Investment
  • Corporate Profits

Period Average for

  • Treasury Bills 3-Month
  • Treasury Notes 10-Year
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Private Inventories (quarterly only)

Year-End Totals for

  • Housing Starts
  • Auto & Light Truck Sales
  • Real Net Exports

INTERNATIONAL INDICATOR COVERAGE

  • Economic Growth (annual percent change in real GDP)
  • Inflation (annual CPI percent change)
  • Current Account Balance
  • Exchange Rate (at year end)
  • 3-Month Interest Rate (at year end)

PANELISTS

ACT Research

Action Economics AIG

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Barclays BMO Capital Markets
BNP Paribas North America ClearView Economics Comerica

Conference Board

Credit Suisse Daiwa Capital Markets America

DuPont

Eaton Corporation Econoclast
Economist Intelligence Unit Fannie Mae FedEx Corporation
Ford Motor Company General Motors Corporation Georgia State University
Goldman Sachs & Co. High Frequency Economics IHS Global Insight
Inforum - Univ. of Maryland J P MorganChase Kellner Economic Advisers

Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

MacroFin Analytics

Mesirow Financial

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Capital Markets

Morgan Stanley

MUFG Union Bank

Naroff Economic Advisors

National Assn. of Home Builders

National Assn. of Realtors

Nomura Securities

Northern Trust Company

Oxford Economics USA

Pierpont Securities

PNC Financial Services Group

RBC Capital Markets

RBS

RDQ Economics

Societe Generale

SOM Economics, Inc.

Standard & Poors Corp.

Swiss Re

Turning Points (Micrometrics)

U.S. Chamber of Commerce

UBS

UCLA Business Forecasting Proj.

Product Delivery

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